Crude oil prices closed with a rise of nearly 1% on Wednesday, after the President of the United States Donald Trump said the new memorandum of understanding with Iran has not yet been finalised and warned that the war could be repeated if it is not satisfied with Tehran's behaviour. However, concerns over oil supply over the next few years have reduced market profits.
Brent contracts were strengthened by 59 cents or 0.75%, closing at $79.55 a barrel, while the American slow WTI rose 74 cents or 0.97%, to $76.79.
Trump said the deal with Iran is not final and left open the possibility of reopening American bombings if Tehran does not "behave properly". It is recalled that the US and Iran announced on Sunday that they reached an agreement in principle on ending the war and reopening it. Ormuz Strait.
"There is still uncertainty surrounding the US stance and this justifies a price reaction after the significant fall of the last few days," commented City Index and FOREX.com analyst, Fawad Razazada.
New tension in Lebanon
At the same time, the market closely monitors developments in Lebanon, where Israeli air raids and artillery fire struck several areas of the south. Lebanese security sources said Hezbollah carried out two drone attacks against Israeli forces.
The draft agreement provides for a ceasefire of hostilities between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah, which remains crucial to stability in the region.
Stocks in the US decline to a low of 40 years
On the front of the offer, American reserves of crude fell for a tenth consecutive week, as demand increased significantly, according to the US Energy Information Service (EIA).
Total reserves were formed at the lowest level since 1985, as the war with Iran continued to cause turbulence in global energy markets.
"The US and other countries are still drawing oil from their strategic and commercial reserves, in order to limit the effects of disturbances in the Middle East," said Andy Lipow Oil Associates.
The IEA warns of oversupply
Despite short-term price support, analysts warn that the risk of oversupply remains strong.
In its first estimate of 2027, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that the global oil market would be faced with a significant surplus of supply, as production is expected to increase by 8 million barrels a day, while demand will be only 2 million barrels a day.
The agency estimates that the US–Iran agreement could offer the opportunity to replenish exhausted stocks or create new strategic reserves.
"The markets may underestimate the size of the over bid coming," said Empire FX analyst Crispus Niaga.
Nevertheless, industry officials estimate that the full return of production and of dualistic activity to pre-war levels will take weeks, months or even years.
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