The United States – Iran agreement for the reopening of the Straits of Hormuz caused relief to the markets, but international shipping is not in a hurry to celebrate. The most critical sea passage for global energy may open again, but returning to normality will be slow, difficult and full of risks.
After months of tension, attacks and naval blockade, hundreds of ships remain trapped or waiting around the Persian Gulf. MOU's signature theoretically opens the way for the restoration of navigation. In practice, however, shipowners, insurers, charterers and energy giants are waiting to see if the agreement can be implemented without new incidents. The Straits of Hormuz are not a simple sea passage. From there it passes about a fifth of global oil flows, as well as significant quantities of LNG, LPG and petroleum products. For this reason, any disturbance in the region is directly translated into pressure on energy prices, fares, premiums and ultimately cost to the global economy.
Before the war, about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products passed daily through this narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf with international markets. However, its analysis Goldman Sachs shows that even after the restoration of peace, flows through the Straits may never return to previous levels. The bank estimates that 70% of pre-war flows can be the new normal. This is because the Gulf countries have in practice discovered alternative routes that reduce their dependence on a geopolitically vulnerable point.
For shipping this means new routes, new cargoes and possibly different transport distances. For Greek shipowners, who dominate both tankers and cargo ships, this development creates new business opportunities not only in oil transport but also in the next phase, which is the reconstruction of energy installations and infrastructure throughout the region.
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