Small changes were recorded in crude oil prices on Thursday, as the market assessed the US Vice President's statements, J.D. Vance., according to which tankers carrying more than 12 million barrels of oil crossed during the night the Straits of Hormuz.
"This is the highest level since the start of the conflict," Vance said during news reporters to the White House. CNBC could not independently confirm the number. Prior to the war with Iran, about 14 million barrels of crude oil and 6 million barrels of refined products passed through the Straits of Hormuz daily.
Brent, the international oil market reference point, was strengthened by 30 cents and closed to $79.85 per barrel, while the American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) retreated by 19 cents, finishing at $76.60 a barrel. Despite relative stabilisation, prices remain more than 11% lower than levels recorded prior to the US–Iran agreement announcement last Sunday.
The Trump – Pezeskian Agreement and Opening the Straits
U.S. President Donald Trump signed on Wednesday the deal with his Iranian counterpart, Masud Pezeskian, aimed at ending the war conflict in the Middle East.
Under the agreement, Iran undertakes to allow for 60 days the passage of ships from the Straits of Hormuz without the imposition of charges, while the United States is obliged to lift the naval blockade imposed on the region.
"For a second consecutive night Iranians did not open fire against ships passing through the Straits of Hormuz," Vance said. "So far they respect commitments made".
The American vice president added that the U.S. Central Administration (CENTCOM) allowed more than twelve ships to pass through the naval blockade, stressing that Washington also applies its own part of the agreement. A few hours later, CENTCOM officially announced the closure of the blockade.
Hesitant return of maritime traffic
Despite developments, Kpler maritime activity monitoring company data do not yet show a significant increase in traffic in the region.
Three Saudi super tankers carrying a total of 6 million barrels of oil were spotted in the Gulf of Oman, however the image is far from pre-war data. Before the conflict began, more than 100 ships, among them dozens of oil tankers, crossed the Straits of Hormuz daily.
"The gates have not been fully opened and we do not yet see a massive ship return," said Kpler's freight research director, Matt Smith. As he explained, many shipping people still appear cautious about crossing the area.
Market fears supply deficit
Oil market analysts warn that even the full reopening of the Straits of Hormuz is not enough to eliminate the effects the war has already caused on the global supply chain.
Rapidan Energy president Bob McNally estimates that later in the year the real evidence will highlight the huge gap that has been created in supply and oil reserves.
"The deal between US and Iran is essentially a temporary truce," he told CNBC. "It's nothing more than an expensive ransom payment for at least 65 million barrels remaining trapped in the Straits of Hormuz".
According to him, Trump seeks to give time to the Gulf Arab states to increase their production and prevent a possible supply deficit during the summer period.
"Buy time and buy oil," he said. "The question is whether the agreement will be maintained and whether it will lead to the restoration of the supply flows that it expects".
Stocks at historically low
Energy Aspects founder, Amrita Sen, argues that the oil market for months has not been moving based on fundamental sizes.
As he notes, investors overlook the fact that global oil reserves have retreated to historically low levels, a development that would normally lead to a significant price rise.
Instead, traders focus on the next day of the Straits of Ormuz and on whether maritime activity will be able to return to the levels prevailing before the war.
"Everything will be done gradually," Shen stressed. "Initially, ships that have been trapped will start moving, but returning to pre-war levels will not happen overnight.".
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