The US-Iran agreement is under critical test, as Lebanon emerges on the most fragile front of regional de-escalation, after the wave of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in response to a blow that cost the life to four Israeli soldiers. The new escalation is noted despite the Washington - Tehran agreement that had declared the end of the conflict on all fronts.
Israel's blows to Lebanese regions came a few hours after the postponement of a new round of US-Iran talks in Switzerland, with U.S. Vice President Jay Dee Vance cancelling his trip. According to a diplomat familiar with the case, invoked by CNN, Tehran sought guarantees that hostilities in Lebanon would end before returning to the table of talks with Washington.
The problem, analysts point out, is that the US-Iran agreement is interpreted differently from the parties involved. Donald Trump said within the week that, under the agreement, the United States expects "full ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, Hezbollah and Israel". However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that he does not intend to withdraw Israeli forces from southern Lebanon.
Danny Chitrinovic, a former head of Iran branch in Israel's military intelligence service, wrote that "the main undermining of any wider understanding with Iran remains Lebanon," adding that the central question is "how far is the United States prepared to reach a truce that both sides interpret differently.".
Pressure within the Israeli government is further intensifying uncertainty. After the death of the four soldiers, far-right members of Netanyahu cabinet called for a tougher military response to Lebanon. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gveer said that "all Lebanon must burn", while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotric said "it's time to talk with fire".
At the same time, in Washington, there is growing distress over Israel's attitude. J.D. Vance appears increasingly impatient towards the Israeli government, saying features: "If I were on the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not attack the only powerful ally I have left anywhere in the world".
The tension in Lebanon complicates the already difficult negotiations to permanentise the US-Iran agreement. Tehran appears to link its return to talks with specific guarantees for the Lebanese front, while Israel insists that it reserves a right to military action against Hezbollah. Thus, even if the US-Iran agreement typically remains in force, its implementation stumbles into the most complex field of regional conflict.
For now, Lebanon remains, as Citrinovic notes, "the most fragile component of any possible agreement". And as long as it is not clarified whether the ceasefire really includes the Israel-Hezbollah front, the risk of a new ignition will continue to burden American-Iran talks and the overall attempt to deescalate in the Middle East.