American intelligence agencies warn the US government that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu It may proceed with actions that will undermine Washington's efforts to reach a long-term peace agreement with Iran, according to a Washington Post report, which calls for current and former US officials.
Based on reports from American intelligence, officials estimate that Israel appears determined to continue its military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon -Despite the truce announced earlier today by both sides. Such a development, according to the same analysis, could significantly burden already fragile relations between the US and Iran, as Tehran insists on the complete end of hostilities on Lebanese territory as a key condition for any diplomatic progress.
According to the report, possible further escalation of the Israeli military campaign in LebanonIt would not only threaten the framework of the agreement signed between the US and Iran yesterday, Wednesday, but could also cause a serious break in Netanyahu-Trump relations, which have been decisive for the Israeli Prime Minister's political course.
Donald Trump himself, in statements from France, where he was found for the G7 summit, had said that there is "a small dispute over Lebanon" with Netanyahu, noting that he has asked the Israeli leader not to "grumble a building, every time someone from Hezbollah enters.".
The new report by the American agencies also estimates that, in view of the autumn elections in Israel, Netanyahu's political survival is directly linked to the need to maintain military presence in Lebanon and escalate operations against Hezbollah. As noted, any withdrawal of forces or cessation of operations could be seen as a political or personal defeat within.
At the same time, the report focuses on Israel's dissatisfaction with the terms of the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, as Israeli officials consider that they weaken the "maximum pressure" policy towards Tehran. From the Washington side, government officials insist that the terms of the agreement do not restrict Israel's right to respond to Hezbollah attacks, however stressing that the priority is to conclude the agreement and prevent a global economic crisis through the reopening of the Straits of Hormuz.
Within Israel, public opinion is largely in favour of the escalation of operations against Hezbollah. At the same time, analysts estimate that any military retreat, could be interpreted by voters as a defeat, strengthening political pressure on the Netanyahu government.
Finally, the report warns that even without further escalation, Israel's refusal to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon could undermine the US-Iran agreement. As an American official noted, the presence of troops is a "destabilization regiment", as it increases the risk of a new ignition between the Israeli army and Hezbollah.