Oil: Weekly dive 8% for Brent, despite returning over $80

Oil markets discount the deescalation of the Middle East crisis, with Brent recording the largest weekly drop in recent months despite the fact that

The hopes for deescalation of the crisis in the Middle East and for a gradual restoration of oil flows through the Straits of Hormuz led the prices of crude oil to a moderate rise on Friday, but Brent recorded a weekly drop of almost 8%, and the new demands that Tehran puts on transiting ships from the strategically important maritime route.

Brent was boosted by 66 cents or 0.53%, at $80.38 a barrel, while the American WTI was rising 94 cents or 1.23%, at $77.54.

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Returning cargo from the Gulf

Gulf oil-producing countries are preparing to increase their exports after the start of the Israeli-Hezbollah truce. According to MarineTraffic figures, at least four tankers carrying crude oil, refining products, and LPG entered the Straits of Hormuz on Friday bound for Iraq ports in the Persian Gulf.

Despite the restart of navigation, Tehran sent a message of stricter control of the area. Iran's state television broadcast that ships should coordinate their passage with the Navy of the Guards of the Revolution.

At the same time, in a directive distributed to the maritime industry and come to the knowledge of Reuters, the Persian Gulf Close Authority (PGSA) said that "no ship is allowed to pass through the Straits of Hormuz without a valid transit permit issued by PGSA".

Hormuz continues to cause concern

Iran's new terms for using the Straits contributed to the price rise Friday, according to Rory Johnston, founder of the Community Context newsletter.

"The market had discounted an agreement and a smooth implementation of it. But so far, things are not exactly going that way," he noted.

Despite Friday's upward reaction, Brent records a weekly drop of about 8%, reflecting the significant deescalation of concerns about the global offer after the US-Iran agreement to end the war.

Phil Flynn, an analyst for Price Futures Group, estimated that prices were gradually moving towards the levels that were before the start of the conflict.

"We expect larger amounts of oil on the market in the next few days. The accumulated cargo of ships can move faster than many believe and, if there is cooperation between Iran and the US, normalisation can proceed quickly," he stressed.

Over 85 million barrels can be returned to the market

At the same time, scheduled for Friday's appointment of American and Iranian officials in Switzerland was postponed, with the Iranian Foreign Ministry saying the talks will take place in the next few days.

Tehran argued that there is no longer an urgent need for a meeting, as the memorandum of understanding for ending the war has already been signed digitally by both sides.

Analysts estimate that the agreement could release more than 85 million barrels of oil remaining trapped in the Persian Gulf, while lifting American sanctions on Iranian exports is expected to further increase global supply.

Nevertheless, the complete restoration of flows through the Straits of Hormuz, from which approximately 20% of the global oil and LNG supply passes, may take several months.

Citi and Commercebank see lower prices

Citi estimates with a 60% probability that flows will be fully smoothed, leading the oil market to surplus and prices to $60–65 a barrel by the first quarter of 2027.

For its part, Commercebank revised its forecast for Brent at $80 a barrel by the end of the year, from $85 previously, although it considers that prices would remain above pre-war levels for much of the following year.

Meanwhile, Iraq's oil minister, Bashim Mohammed, said the country's oil deposits are ready to come back to full operation and that production will gradually be restored to earlier levels.

On the demand front, OPEC estimated in World Oil Outlook 2026 that global oil consumption would increase to 113.3 million barrels daily by 2030, from 105.1 million barrels in 2025.