The next day in Ormuz: The 600 ships in the... tail and the difficult bet of returning to normality

The US – Iran deal brings relief to markets, with oil prices falling and stock rise, but the complete restoration of stability in energy flows and shipping remains uncertain - What analysts see

The Notice of the Agreement between the United States and Iran to end the war caused immediate relief in international markets. The oil prices They retreated, investors rushed to anticipate a deescalation of tension and the global economy seemed to breathe again after months of uncertainty.

However, behind the optimism of the first reactions, reality proves much more complex. The agreement may have put a brake on military confrontation, but it does not mean that normality automatically returns to world trade, energy markets and shipping.

For many analysts, the real test begins now. Almost. 600 ships remain immobilized inside the Persian Gulf, while hundreds of others are waiting outside its entrance gate. Analysts, shipowners, insurers and traders warn that returning to normality will be neither immediate nor easy. The previous crisis caused not only disruptions in energy flows. He created new trade patterns, increased transport costs, changed supply strategies and forced many countries to seek alternative sources of supply. That is why the market is carefully addressing the first steps following the agreement.

The long wait
The image currently recorded around Hormuz best reflects the magnitude of the turmoil caused by the month-long crisis. According to Kpler data, about 600 ships are trapped within the Persian Gulf, waiting to leave once navigation is fully restored. At the same time, more than 300 empty cargo ships are waiting in the Gulf of Oman to enter the area and load. This concentration is one of the largest recorded in recent years in one of the most important marine corridors on the planet. Of the ships remaining in the Gulf, 98 are tankers carrying crude oil and 88 others carry refining products and oil derivatives. Behind these figures are millions of barrels of oil and huge quantities of energy products waiting to be channelled into the international markets. The agreement theoretically opens the way for the release of these flows. In practice, however, the process is expected to evolve much slower than political announcements suggest.