On 3 February 2022 a solar storm of moderate intensity struck Earth with devastating consequences: SpaceX He had just launched 49 satellites. Starlink, But the atmospheric resistance caused forced 38 of them to go off track prematurely and burn at their re-entry into the atmosphere.
When solar storms hit Earth, they can disrupt electricity networks, rail systems, satellites, and even ecosystems. The above incident is just one example of the effects space weather phenomena can have and highlights the need for more accurate prediction.
The project ‘Swarm-AWARE’
A new project, headed by National Observatory of Athens and financing by European Space Agency (ESA) He's aiming right at it. The project entitled "Swarm-AWARE" was recently presented at its annual conference European Union of Geosciences (EGU General Assembly 2026) in Vienna, which numbered over 20,000 delegates.
Researchers study data from ESA's space mission "Swarm". With a formation of three satellites, flying into the ionosphere, the mission has managed to make the most accurate capture of Earth's magnetic field to date. Satellites collect with high-definition magnetometers data, such as measurements of Earth's magnetic field, plasma density and temperature and electrical fields, in order to measure changes caused either by endogenous causes due to Earth phenomena, or extragenic causes, such as solar storms.
This data is combined with data from the satellite Copernicus Sentinel-5P and with observations from the ground can help distinguish the "signatures" that space weather phenomena leave in the ionosphere from those associated with phenomena unfolding on Earth.
Researchers analyze satellite and terrestrial data with the help of artificial intelligence and other advanced computing tools, such as time series analysis through information theory, in order to identify the source of signals.
The specificity of the programme
THE George Balasis, Research director of the Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing (IADET) of the National Observatory of Athens and coordinator of the program, points out that "the specificity of this program is that it focuses at the same time on detecting signals related to space weather, where we investigate how space phenomena interact with the Earth's magnetic field, as well as on the physical risks such as earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes. So with the same data we look off Earth and on Earth."
He explains that over the last two years there has been increased solar activity, with powerful magnetic storms, so researchers have the opportunity to study rich data. Instead, "the signals associated with natural hazards are quite weaker and this creates a difficulty in detecting them. So it takes a lot of detail in their analysis and this is achieved by the advanced methods we use.".
Important step is the detection of disturbances before a natural risk
In the first phase the research team has focused on volcanic eruption signals, as the atmospheric disturbances that follow can reach the ionosphere and be detected by satellite magnetometers. They will also attempt to detect tsunami-related magnetic signals, but also major earthquakes with small focal depth.
"The goal is to improve in the future existing models that predict space weather. This is important for reducing the effects on Earth. As far as natural phenomena on Earth are concerned, we are very far from predicting them and this is an open research problem, but the detection of disturbances before a natural danger will be an important step," concludes Mr Balasis.
Source: RES-AE