The prospect of signing the agreement between the United States and Iran next Friday has revived hopes that one of the most serious geopolitical crises in recent months may go to decommission. For international shipping, however, optimism is accompanied by a great deal of caution.

Despite the positive climate that has begun to shape in the markets, shipping companies, insurers and ship managers still face a reality full of uncertainties. Until the signatures fall, until the terms of application of the agreement are clarified and until it is confirmed that the Straits of Hormuz are truly safe for international navigation, the market does not consider that anything has changed substantially.

The 4 points that shipping watches
The deal is expected to be signed Friday, but by then companies are holding a stand.

- The Straits of Hormuz should be controlled and cleared by possible mines before the traffic is fully restored.
- What? War risk premiums are expected to gradually deescalate rather than immediately.
- The Huthi attacks and pirate activity in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden remain active threats.
- The new charges that Iran plans to impose on passing ships in the form of "services".

Until Friday nothing is taken for granted
Although the information converges that US-Iran deal expected to be signed next Friday, the maritime market avoids discounting developments. Alketos Drosos points out that until the final text of the Understanding Memorandum is published and all details of its application are clarified, all information should be treated with caution.

The same message is being sent by Maria Bergeletou, who estimates that even after signing the agreement a transitional period will be required until market confidence is fully restored. "The normalisation of navigation in the Straits of Hormuz is expected to be gradual rather than direct," stresses SIGNAL analyst. Shippers, insurers and ship managers continue to seek clear guarantees of the free and safe passage of ships before returning to the pre-crisis levels of activity.

The big question: Who's gonna control Hormuz?
According to Alket Droso, the market is not only considering whether the Straits of Hormuz will be officially described as "open". The real question is who will exercise operational control in the region and on what terms the ships will be crossed.

"The crucial question is not whether the Strait of Hormuz will be announced as open. The real question is under what conditions commercial shipping will be able to return to normal transit rates," he points out. This concern is linked to Iran's possibility of maintaining a significant degree of influence on the way the passage operates, even after the agreement has been implemented. For shipowners, political de-escalation is important. But what matters even more is the existence of a stable, predictable and secure operating framework.

Mines that keep shipping on the lookout
One of the most serious issues that remain open concerns reports of mines in Oman waters and areas associated with the main sea corridors of the region.

For shipping, this means that even after signing the agreement there can be no automatic return to normality. It should first be ensured that the maritime routes are safe, that the necessary controls are completed and that there is certification that ships can move without risk.

The EOS Risk Group Stresses that mine companies require time and are not a process completed within a few days. "Another thing is a political declaration on free navigation and another the safe, insurancely acceptable and operationally predictable passage," notes Alketos Drosos. That is why insurers continue to maintain increased caution.

Iran's new "services" cause concern
One of the least discussed but particularly important issues concerns the charges Iran is expected to impose on passing ships under the new agreement. According to the information so far, these charges will not be presented as transit charges, but as providing "services" or services to ships using the passage.

However, for the maritime market, terminology is of little importance. What employs shipowners and charterers is the additional cost that can be created. The amount of charges, the manner in which they are implemented and the extent to which certain categories of ships will be burdened remain unclear elements that the market expects to be cleared after the agreement is signed. Sources of the maritime market note that any new financial burden on such a critical passage directly affects transport costs, fares and ultimately world trade.

The premiums will fall, but not immediately.
The prospect of agreement has already begun to affect the climate on the market. However, Maria Bergeletu appreciates that de-escalation in war risk premiums and fares will be gradual.

The London insurance market still offers cover for the area, but continues to assess the real risks that remain active. These include possible mines, residual security threats, implementation of the agreement in practice and uncertainty surrounding the final operating status of Hormuz.

"The direction is towards gradual de-escalation from the extreme levels of the crisis, but not towards immediate full re-evaluation," he explains. According to her, the market will likely take weeks or even months to return to more normal levels.

Huthi and pirates continue to threaten ships
Even if the situation in Hormuz improves, international shipping continues to face serious challenges in Red Sea In Gulf of Aden. The recent incident recorded by UKMTO openly in Yemen, where gunmen attempted to approach and board a container ship, recalled that the area remains a high risk.

At the same time, EOS Risk Group recorded a new incident south of Xaafun in Somalia, when armed in two skiffs approached a general cargo ship and followed a firefight with its security team. These incidents show that threats are no longer limited to the Huthi. Piracy in Somalia is returning dynamically to the fore, creating another level of concern for shipowners. "The threat does not disappear. It is simply altered geographically and operationally," says EOS Risk Group.

The market already looks the next day
The US-Iran agreement is considered an important step towards stabilising an area from which much of the world's oil and gas trade is going through. However, as the analyses of EOS Risk Group and SIGNAL show, the signing of Friday will not automatically mean the end of the crisis.

The next few weeks will be decisive. The implementation of the agreement, the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the removal of possible mines, the attitude of insurers, the new fees that Iran plans to impose and the wider developments in the Middle East will determine whether current optimism can be turned into a real return to normality. Until then, shipping continues to monitor developments with caution, knowing that in the Middle East the distance between de-escalation and a new crisis remains often very small