They retreated for a second consecutive day by about 5% crude oil prices, touching the lowest levels of the last three months, as markets anticipate that the interim agreement to end the war between the US and Iran will soon lead to the reopening of the Straits of Hormuz and the return of Iranian quantities of crude to international markets.
Brent closed with a $4.21 drop or 5.1%, at $78.96 a barrel, while the American slow WTI retreated by $4.70 or 5.8%, at $76.05 a barrel.
These are Brent's lowest closure levels since March 2 and WTI since March 4. To be noted at just two meetings, Brent has lost nearly 10% and WTI more than 10%.
It is recalled that the US–Iran war began on 28 February. The day before, Brent was negotiating at 72.48 dollars and WTI at 67.02 dollars a barrel.
"Slow oil retreats rapidly as the market considers that the Straits of Hormuz will open soon," noted Bob Yauger, Mizuho's chief energy contracts. Before the war, about 20% of the world's oil supply passed through the Straits of Hormuz.
The terms of the agreement press prices
Details of the interim agreement began to become known on Tuesday. United States President Donald Trump said the deal excludes the acquisition of nuclear weapons from Tehran, while an American official said the framework allows Iran to restart oil exports after signing.
The agreement provides for an extension by 60 days of the fragile truce announced in April and at the same time reopening of the Straits of Ormuz, which remained essentially excluded from Iran after the US and Israel military operations.
Despite the optimism on the market, several analysts warn that the complete restoration of energy flows and navigation may take weeks. At the same time, Lebanese Hezbollah estimates that Tehran will hardly proceed to a definitive nuclear agreement if Israel does not leave Lebanon.
"The markets now show a high degree of confidence in the success of the project, without giving particular attention to complex issues such as compensation, sanctions and, above all, the achievement of a sustainable nuclear agreement, which was the main cause of the war," Ritterbusch and Associates commented.
The deescalation of tension prompted large investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citi, to revise their forecast of oil prices downwards.
China, interest rates and Ukraine boost pressure
In addition to developments in the Middle East, investors are concerned about slowing down the Chinese economy, persistent inflation and high interest rates worldwide.
China, the world's second largest economy, presented new signs of weakness in May, while crude oil processing in Chinese refineries declined by 9.1% on an annual basis, at the lowest level of nearly four years.
At the same time, Donald Trump said after meeting Volontimir Zelenski that Russia should move towards a peace agreement with Ukraine. These statements created moderate optimism for G7 leaders.
A possible settlement of the war in Ukraine could lead to the relaxation of some of the sanctions against Russia, allowing Moscow to increase oil exports. Russia was in 2025 the third largest producer of crude worldwide, after the US and Saudi Arabia.
Waiting for stock data in the US
Meanwhile, the market expects weekly stock data from the American Petroleum Institute and the US Energy Information Service (EIA).
Analysts estimate American energy companies pumped 4.6 million barrels from crude reserves during the week ending June 12.
If the estimate is confirmed, it will be the eighth consecutive week of reduction in stocks, which has happened since January 2025. In the respective week last year the reduction had reached 11.5 million barrels, while the average of the last five years was set at 2.3 million barrels.
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